Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract leaning to a lower-summer outcome rather than a heat spike, with the market pricing the leading bands around the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit and the current crowd-implied probability for **YES** at 0%. That matters because the contract settles on the **highest** temperature at Hartsfield-Jackson on 1 August 2026, so traders are effectively pricing whether Atlanta’s airport ever prints into a hotter band during the day rather than whether it merely feels warm by afternoon.

For context, Atlanta’s airport has a long record of August heat, but its extremes are still much lower than the all-time city peak of **106°F** on 30 June 2012, and the August record at the airport is **104°F** on 22 August 2007.[2][3][9] Recent August highs have often landed well below the century mark, including **95°F** in Atlanta in August 2025 and **100°F** in August 2019, which is why mid-80s and upper-80s bands are usually easier to defend than a top-end heat outcome.[8][16] For a Polymarket user, the mechanics are simple: shares are bought and sold in **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the payout depends on which conditional-token bucket matches the final Wunderground high for KATL.

The main catalysts are the daytime forecast updates, cloud cover, and any late-afternoon convective activity that caps the high before settlement closes at 12:00 UTC. A trader should watch National Weather Service discussions for Atlanta and the airport’s daily history page on Wunderground, because a small shift in heat index, humidity, or thunderstorm timing can move the day’s maximum by several degrees even when the morning starts hot.[4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.