Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying it sees no credible path to the highest temperature at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol landing in the listed YES range, even though settlement still depends on the Wunderground reading for 31 July 2026. On Polymarket, traders put **USDC** into **conditional tokens** on Polygon, so the price is simply the live crowd view of which temperature band will resolve on the official source, not a forecast of general comfort in Amsterdam.

For context, late-July Amsterdam normally sits in the low 20s Celsius by day, with average highs around 22°C and average July highs near 72°F/22°C across standard climate references.[6][13] Historical July extremes show that warmer outcomes are possible but uncommon: Amsterdam’s monthly July record high is cited at 32°C/90°F, while recent individual summer days have reached the mid-30s in exceptional heat episodes.[8][16] A 0% print therefore implies the current book is treating this as a very low-probability tail outcome rather than a routine summer high.

The main catalysts are the short-horizon weather inputs that can still move Schiphol’s daytime maximum: cloud cover, drizzle, wind direction, and any last-minute shift in the forecast track. Current same-day forecasting for Amsterdam has pointed to a warm but not extreme day, around 26°C with drizzle risk and south-westerly breeze, which would keep the top end below the hotter July outliers that can trigger higher bands.[2] Traders watching the market typically focus on the latest airport-specific forecast updates and the final observed high on Wunderground’s Schiphol station page, since that is the settlement reference rather than city-centre weather.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.