Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Market context

Polymarket's USDC-denominated contract on Trump signing a U.S.-Iran deal trades at 18 cents on the dollar, implying roughly one-in-five odds by August 2026. The conditional token structure means traders holding YES tokens profit only if both parties execute a written agreement with Trump as signatory—whether representing the U.S. or Iran—before the settlement window closes. The specificity of "written agreement" and "official capacity" narrows the resolution criteria considerably; informal understandings or non-binding frameworks would not qualify.

Historical precedent shapes how to interpret this probability. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by Secretary of State John Kerry, not the sitting president, though Obama administration officials negotiated it. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and has characterised it as a poor deal. His first administration pursued a "maximum pressure" sanctions regime rather than renegotiation. Any new agreement would likely require substantial movement from Iran's current negotiating position or a significant shift in Trump administration priorities—both uncertain within the two-year window.

Traders should monitor announcements from Trump's transition team regarding Iran policy, any statements from Iranian officials about willingness to negotiate, and developments in regional tensions that might create diplomatic openings. Reuters reported in November 2024 that Trump's team was considering various approaches to Iran, though no formal negotiations had commenced. The timing matters: substantive negotiations typically require months, and a signed agreement by July 2026 would need to begin within the next 12-18 months to allow for drafting and ratification procedures.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.