Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the likelihood of Trump ceasing to be President by 30 June 2026 at 1%, implying traders assess removal or resignation as an exceptionally remote outcome within the 18-month window. The contract settles Yes only on permanent departure from office—temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment or medical absences do not qualify. An announced resignation or removal before the settlement date triggers immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of the effective date of departure.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has resigned since Nixon in 1974, and removal via impeachment has never succeeded (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were acquitted; the Trump impeachments of 2019 and 2021 did not result in conviction). The 25th Amendment has been invoked for temporary presidential incapacity only four times, each for brief medical procedures. Permanent removal would require either voluntary resignation, conviction and removal following impeachment in the Senate, or death in office—each carrying distinct political and procedural barriers that have proven durable across American history.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments around ongoing legal proceedings, particularly any convictions in state or federal cases that might create political pressure for departure, alongside any sudden health developments or major political crises that could destabilise the administration. Senate composition matters significantly: removal via impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority, a threshold Republicans currently control. The contract's 1% price reflects the substantial institutional and political obstacles to permanent presidential removal, though unexpected events—criminal conviction, severe health crisis, or dramatic political realignment—remain the primary vectors through which the Yes outcome could materialise.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.