Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before 31 July 2026 is currently priced at a mere 1% chance on Polymarket, reflecting the crowd’s near-total confidence that he will remain in office. This contract, traded on-chain using USDC on the Polygon network with conditional tokens, updates in real time as traders react to new political developments, yet the implied probability remains stubbornly low.

Historically, presidential removals are exceptionally rare; the only precedents are Nixon’s resignation amid impeachment threats in 1974 and the two impeachments of Trump himself in 2019 and 2021, neither resulting in removal. Kalshi recently estimated the probability of Trump’s impeachment and removal in his second term at nearly 28.7%, a sharp rise from earlier months, yet this broader risk does not translate into immediate resignation or removal by July 2026[3].

Traders should monitor announcements from Democratic lawmakers regarding impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation, especially following Trump’s recent threats on Iran, which have spurred growing calls for his removal among Democrats[5]. The House impeachment market on Polymarket currently sits at 4%, suggesting limited near-term legislative action, while the resignation market for December 2026 is priced at 6%, indicating slightly higher expectations for later in the year[2][4]. Any sudden announcement of resignation before the settlement window would instantly resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the change takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.