Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kostyuk and Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices Kostyuk's advancement at 55 per cent, reflecting modest favouritism despite the Ukrainian's higher ranking and experience. Settlement hinges on a completed match result by 11 June; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 split of the conditional tokens on Polygon.

Kostyuk, ranked around 20th globally, has shown inconsistency on clay despite occasional deep runs at Roland Garros. Andreeva, the Russian teenage prospect, has climbed rapidly through rankings and demonstrated poise in major tournaments, though her clay-court record remains limited. Historical precedent suggests youth and momentum can outweigh ranking in early-round clay matchups; Andreeva's recent performances against seeded players have often defied expectations, whilst Kostyuk's form fluctuates considerably between surfaces.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any weather disruptions affecting the Paris schedule in early June. Injury reports in the week prior matter substantially—both players have experienced fitness issues in 2026. Court assignment and surface conditions on the day will influence play style; faster courts favour Andreeva's aggressive baseline game, whilst slower clay suits Kostyuk's defensive strengths. The 55 per cent pricing suggests the market views this as genuinely competitive, with minimal consensus on either player's superiority in this specific matchup.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.