National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Bejlek–Swiatek conditional token at **0% YES**, so the contract currently implies no meaningful chance that Sara Bejlek advances against Iga Swiatek in this market. On Polymarket, traders post USDC against conditional tokens on Polygon, and the position only resolves to the named player if that player advances; if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the market’s seven-day window, it settles 50-50 rather than to either side.

The historical frame still points one way: Swiatek has already beaten Bejlek in their only recorded meeting, a straight-sets win at Roland Garros in May 2026, and the scoreline was comfortable enough to reinforce the hierarchy the market is reflecting.[1][3][6][7] Swiatek’s broader 2026 win rate has also been materially stronger than Bejlek’s in the datasets available, with tennisstats.com showing Swiatek around 70.8% in the calendar year versus Bejlek’s 64.7%.[1] That gap does not guarantee anything in a specific WTA draw, but it explains why the contract is pinned to the floor rather than trading as a live upset chance.

For traders, the main catalysts are not abstract form trends but the match mechanics: whether the fixture remains on the schedule, whether there is a walkover or retirement, and whether any delay pushes settlement into the market’s 7-day fallback to 50-50. The tournament scoreboard and official WTA match pages are the cleanest places to watch for an actual start or completion, while live scoring services will usually flag a withdrawal or retirement quickly.[2][3][9][10] In practice, a 0% market can still move if the event is scratched, rescheduled, or if a player is confirmed out before first serve, because the payout then depends on the contract rules rather than pre-match tennis strength.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.