US Open, Qualification ATP: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Tom Gentzsch

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pinned at 0% YES on Pol Martin Tiffon, so the order book is treating Tom Gentzsch as the near-certain advancement outcome. On-chain, that price sits on conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon, with the market resolving only if one player advances or else falling back to the tie/no-result rules built into the contract.

That zero bid needs reading against the match’s competitive frame rather than as a literal certainty. Gentzsch is the higher-ranked player, around ATP 145 against Tiffon’s roughly ATP 209, and the US Open qualifying draw itself is one of the most compressed formats in tennis: three wins are needed to reach the main draw, and first-round mismatch pricing can be harsh when the field is deep and volatile. Comparable qualifying markets often drift to extreme prices when a player has superior ranking and the schedule points to a clean start, even though early-round qualifiers can be upset-prone on hard courts.

The immediate catalysts are whether the match actually goes ahead on the published schedule, whether the order of play changes, and whether either player withdraws before first ball. US Open qualifying began on 24 August and runs through 27 August, with men’s and women’s singles qualifying staged across the outside courts in New York, so any delay, walkover or rescheduling would matter directly for settlement. If the match is not completed and a winner is not determined by 7 September, the contract’s fallback to 50-50 becomes the relevant outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.