Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of swedish open, qualification: francesco passaro vs maks kasnikowski. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Maks Kasnikowski in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
This page reviews Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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