Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger on 14 July 2026, with Milavsky heavily favoured to advance. Polymarket prices this contract at 100% YES for Milavsky, locking in near-certain USDC payouts on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, despite the match being scheduled for 10:00 AM ET the following day.

Historical precedents in lower-tier Challenger events show that 100% crowd-implied probabilities often signal a mismatch in skill or form rather than a guaranteed outcome, yet Milavsky’s initial odds of 1.50 against Chan’s 2.375 align with Tennis Tonic’s pick for a three-set victory, reinforcing the market’s confidence [1]. Comparable cases where one player dominates pre-match odds rarely see 50-50 settlements unless cancellations occur, and the $107,000 prize pool at Granby 2026 suggests sufficient incentive for both to complete the match [3].

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger schedule updates for any delays beyond the seven-day resolution window or cancellations, which would trigger the 50-50 settlement clause. Recent coverage confirms the match is set for 14 July at 9:25 PM local time, with no reported injuries or withdrawals yet [5]. Any announcement of a postponement past 20 July would invalidate the current pricing, but absent such news, the on-chain mechanics lock in Milavsky’s advancement as the sole resolution path.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.