National Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Botic van de Zandschulp

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this National Bank Open match at **38% YES** on the Medvedev side, with settlement in **USDC** on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the contract is effectively a live view of who advances rather than a judgement on ranking alone. The market resolves to Medvedev if he wins the match, to van de Zandschulp if he does, and to a 50-50 outcome only if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner determined.

The screen for a 38% price is a straightforward favourite-vs-underdog shape: Medvedev enters with a 4-0 head-to-head lead over van de Zandschulp, and the Dutchman has yet to beat him in their previous meetings. Tennis preview coverage has repeatedly pointed to Medvedev’s stronger record on hard courts and his cleaner history in this matchup, although some reports note he has been less dominant at this event than his broader pedigree suggests. That matters for Polymarket because short-set variance can still move the token sharply even when the pre-match edge is one-sided.

What traders need to watch is less the abstract form book and more the event plumbing: official order-of-play updates, any change to the Rogers Court schedule, weather interruptions, and whether the match is completed inside the settlement window. Tournament listings place the match on 5 August 2026, with live coverage pages showing the expected start around 22:00 UTC, so any postponement or suspension would change the path to resolution rather than just the tennis price. Recent previews also flagged Medvedev’s long lay-off from hard courts before Montreal, which is the kind of detail that can matter if the opening set turns scrappy and the market starts repricing the likelihood of an upset.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.