Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta

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Market context

Kokkinakis versus Carreno Busta is scheduled for the French Open men's draw on 27 May 2026, with the conditional token currently trading at zero on Polygon, reflecting the market's assessment that this match carries negligible probability of occurring as drawn. The USDC-settled contract structure means traders are effectively pricing in either cancellation, postponement beyond the seven-day window, or an outcome so heavily favoured toward one player that the opposing token has collapsed to illiquidity.

Historical precedent suggests caution with early-round Roland Garros matchups involving mid-ranking players. Kokkinakis, an Australian ranked outside the top 50 in recent seasons, has struggled with consistency and injury setbacks that have repeatedly disrupted his tournament participation. Carreno Busta, the Spanish clay-court specialist, typically performs better at Roland Garros than on faster surfaces, though his ranking has fluctuated between 15th and 40th depending on form. Previous encounters between players of their calibre at major tournaments show withdrawal rates of roughly 3–5 per cent in the week preceding play, particularly when lower seeds face scheduling conflicts or minor injuries.

The settlement window closes 3 June at 09:00 UTC, giving traders a six-day buffer after the scheduled date. Traders should monitor the official ATP and Roland Garros draw confirmations in late May, as well as injury reports from both players' camps. Court assignments and weather delays at Roland Garros frequently push matches into the following day, but the seven-day grace period accommodates typical rescheduling. The zero probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether this pairing will materialise rather than a decisive market view on head-to-head performance.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.