US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 0% YES, which implies the market is effectively treating a Maks Kasnikowski advance as negligible against the current set of information. On the exchange, that price sits inside a USDC-denominated position on Polygon, settled by conditional token logic: if Kasnikowski advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer before the deadline, YES pays; if Kjaer advances, NO pays; if the match is not played or remains unresolved by the settlement cutoff, it resolves 50-50.

The match itself was scheduled for the US Open men’s qualifying draw, which runs across the 24-27 August window, with this fixture listed for 25 August at around 17:20 UTC and on the tournament’s qualifying schedule for the New York hard courts. That matters because a 0% quote usually reflects either a near-complete market view on the opponent, a stale book, or a contract that has already become hard to move after the event has effectively been priced out. In comparable qualifying markets, prices tend to snap sharply once order-of-play posts and again if a player is reported scratched, delayed, or moved.

For traders, the key catalyst is simple: the official order of play and any late withdrawal or walkover notice from the US Open site or live-score feeds. If the match is postponed into the next day, the market still resolves normally so long as a winner is decided by 8 September; if it is never played, the fallback is the 50-50 outcome. With qualification compressed into four days and only 16 men advancing, every scheduling change has direct impact on whether this contract resolves on a completed match or on the no-contest rule.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.