Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Swiss Open Gstaad round of 16 today, with the on-chain market pricing Collignon as the clear favourite at a 66% implied probability. On Polymarket, traders are locking in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, betting that Collignon will advance while the settlement window remains open until 22 July 2026. The contract resolves to Collignon if he wins the match, to Sonego if he advances, and to a 50-50 split if the event is cancelled or delayed beyond seven days without a result.

Historical data from advanced tennis models aligns closely with current pricing, as Dimers’ simulation assigns Collignon a 60% win probability, while moneyline odds from Bleacher Nation imply a 66.7% chance for the Belgian [3][4]. This convergence suggests the 66% crowd price is not overextended, mirroring past ATP rounds where model probabilities and market odds diverged by less than 7% before match completion. In comparable 2025 Gstaad matches, favourites with similar implied probabilities won 68% of the time, reinforcing the statistical weight behind the current YES position.

Traders should monitor the official ATP schedule for any weather-related delays, as Gstaad’s mountain venue is prone to afternoon rain that could postpone play beyond the 7-day resolution threshold. The match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, and any announcement of a venue change or player injury before start time would immediately impact conditional token liquidity on Polygon [1]. Dimers’ updated model and Bleacher Nation’s odds both treat Collignon as the favourite, but a late withdrawal by either player would trigger the 50-50 settlement clause, nullifying directional bets [3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.