Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of los cabos open: francisco cerundolo vs tristan boyer. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Tristan Boyer in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page reviews Los Cabos Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tristan Boyer across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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