Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate were set to face off in their Granby Challenger match on 13 July 2026, but the contract on Polymarket now trades at 100% YES for Cassone advancing, implying the market views Schoolkate as effectively eliminated before the first ball was struck. On Polygon, this USDC-backed position uses conditional tokens to lock in the outcome, with resolution tied strictly to official Challenger statistics rather than speculative commentary.

Historically, such absolute pricing in tennis prediction markets usually follows a confirmed withdrawal, retirement, or disqualification rather than a pre-match upset, as seen in previous ATP Challenger contracts where one-sided probabilities emerged after official draw changes or injury reports. In those cases, the 100% mark resolved cleanly once the advancing player was confirmed by the tournament organiser, avoiding the 50-50 default clause that applies only if the match is cancelled or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.

Traders should monitor the Granby tournament’s official schedule and any late announcements regarding Schoolkate’s status, as a walkover or retirement before the first set would trigger a 50-50 resolution instead of a Cassone win. The ATP’s latest challenger updates confirm the match was originally scheduled for 10:00 AM ET, but no recent news has clarified whether Schoolkate withdrew or if the result was already decided off-court [1]. Until the tournament’s final match report is published, the on-chain price reflects a near-certain outcome, but the settlement window remains open until 20 July 2026.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.