Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 74% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 36.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Match O/U 40.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 25% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to us open atp: mattia bellucci vs zsombor piros. This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Zsombor Piros in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Belluc…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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