Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is trading at **0% YES** on Basilashvili advancing against Ymer, which implies the market is effectively pricing in either a Ymer result or a non-standard settlement outcome in USDC terms on Polygon rather than a straight Basilashvili win. The match itself is the Wimbledon qualifying meeting between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Elias Ymer, and live score listings show it as a grass-court qualifying encounter with Basilashvili around ATP No. 112 and Ymer around No. 185.[1]

The main historical frame here is straightforward: in player-vs-player tennis markets, the price usually tracks ranking edge, surface fit, and whether the contest is actually due to start. Flashscore’s pre-match page showed Basilashvili leading the head-to-head 1-1 going into the meeting, while ATP archive material for a prior Doha qualifying match records Ymer beating Basilashvili in three sets after a retirement, so the pair have already split meaningful encounters.[1][7] That kind of mixed record tends to keep a qualifier match from being a pure coin flip, but Polymarket’s 0% YES still says the crowd sees little to no value in Basilashvili once settlement rules are considered.

For traders, the practical catalysts are simple: confirmation that the match was actually played, whether it finished inside the seven-day settlement window, and whether any withdrawal or abandonment triggers the market’s 50-50 fallback. FanDuel had the match scheduled to start at 8:00am ET on 22 June, while other live listings showed a Wimbledon qualifying slot on Court 10, so changes to court assignment or schedule can matter if the event is delayed.[5][6] On comparable platforms, tennis contracts are often resolved by whether a ball is struck at all, and Kalshi notes that if a match does not begin, it settles at fair value under its rules, highlighting how start-time uncertainty can be as important as form.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.