Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Filippo Romano are scheduled to meet in a Bunschoten tennis match on 13 July 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices YES (Bailly victory) at 0%, implying near-certainty of a Romano win or match non-completion. Settlement occurs 20 July 2026 at 08:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for delays before the 50-50 tie-break clause activates. The contract trades on Polygon as conditional USDC tokens, with resolution tied to ATP or ITF official records.

Bailly, a French player ranked outside the top 500, has limited recent tournament history at this tier. Romano, an Italian competitor, similarly occupies the lower professional echelons where match outcomes depend heavily on form, injury status, and draw positioning. The 0% pricing reflects either strong market conviction about Romano's superiority or, more likely, structural illiquidity in a niche lower-tier match where few traders hold positions. Historical precedent suggests such extreme probabilities in minor circuit matches often reflect absence of informed trading rather than genuine certainty.

Traders should monitor official Bunschoten tournament announcements for withdrawal confirmations, as lower-ranked players frequently pull from events due to injury or scheduling conflicts. Recent ITF and ATP communications regarding July 2026 scheduling remain sparse, leaving the match vulnerable to cancellation or postponement. Any withdrawal by either player before 13 July would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, fundamentally altering the contract's expected value regardless of current pricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.