Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault faces Andres Martin tomorrow in the Granby Challenger, a match originally set for 10:00AM ET on 13 July 2026. On Polymarket, the contract pricing Arseneault to advance sits at 23% YES, implying a steep favourite in Andres Martin. Traders holding USDC on Polygon are effectively betting on conditional tokens that resolve only if the match completes without cancellation or seven-day delay, which would force a 50-50 settlement.

Historically, first-time H2H encounters at Challenger level often skew heavily toward the higher-ranked player, and here the data shows no prior record between the two [1]. Arseneault, ranked world No. 674 with a 54% career win rate, faces Martin, who has previously qualified for Granby as a top qualifier in 2025 [4][10]. In comparable 2025 Granby cases, lower-ranked qualifiers like Martin tended to dominate unranked or debut opponents, supporting the market’s low probability for Arseneault.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Challenger draw confirmation and any weather-related delays for Granby, as the settlement window closes 2026-07-20T14:00:00Z. No recent news has announced a postponement, but the match’s 3:00pm local start time on 13 July remains the key catalyst [1]. Any delay beyond seven days without a winner would trigger the 50-50 clause, a risk that currently appears minimal given the tournament’s tight schedule.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.