Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model described as a significant capability step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, had been exposed through a data leak. The company stated the model is undergoing early access testing. On Polymarket, conditional YES tokens currently trade near zero, reflecting the market's assessment that formal public release remains uncertain within the April 2026 settlement window. USDC holders shorting release via NO tokens on Polygon are pricing in either continued delays, a pivot to alternative branding, or restricted access that falls short of the leak's definition.

Historical precedent suggests caution about timeline compression. OpenAI's GPT-4 was announced in March 2023 but remained in limited access for weeks; full public availability took longer still. Similarly, Anthropic's own Claude 2 announcement in July 2023 preceded widespread availability by months. The 0% YES probability reflects scepticism that a model exposed through security breach will move from early testing to confirmed public release within five weeks, particularly given Anthropic's track record of measured rollouts and the reputational stakes following the leak itself.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, particularly any statement clarifying whether Mythos will launch as a distinct product or be absorbed into existing Claude versioning. The company's next earnings call or product roadmap disclosure could shift conditional token pricing sharply. Equally material: whether the leak prompts accelerated release as damage control, or extended caution as the company reassesses security protocols. Settlement hinges on explicit confirmation that a released model matches the leaked specifications.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.