Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally | 41% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, the memphis classic: xiyu wang vs caty mcnally stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Xiyu Wang and Caty McNally in the The Memphis Classic, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We track The Memphis Classic: Xiyu Wang vs Caty McNally across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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