Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of istanbul 2: kyoka okamura vs lanlana tararudee. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kyoka Okamura and Lanlana Tararudee in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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