Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu. This market refers to the tennis match between Varvara Lepchenko and Maia Ilinca Burcescu in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Iasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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