Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 Winner | 41% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 37% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala | 25% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 6% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 Winner | 5% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mubadala citi dc open: leylah fernandez vs alexandra eala stands at 61% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Leylah Fernandez and Alexandra Eala in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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