Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury defeated the Indiana Fever 111–109 in their WNBA matchup on 24 June 2026, confirming the market’s resolution to “Phoenix Mercury” with absolute certainty [5]. This outcome aligns with the pre-game moneyline where the Fever held a 79% implied probability but failed to cover the +7.5 spread, while the Mercury won outright despite being the underdog at 22¢ [1][2].

Historically, games where a team with a 79% implied probability loses outright are rare but not unprecedented in the WNBA, often occurring when home-court advantage or key player fatigue skews the final score [4]. In comparable cases, such as the Fever’s 86–77 loss to the Mercury on 22 June 2026, the underdog capitalised on defensive lapses in the closing quarters, a pattern that repeated here [7].

Traders should monitor post-game injury reports and roster updates, as Caitlin Clark’s performance (10–7 record for the Fever) and Sophie Cunningham’s post-game comments may influence future market pricing [4][7]. With the settlement window ending 23:30 UTC on 24 June, the USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon have already resolved, locking the 100% YES outcome for Phoenix Mercury [1]. No further catalysts remain, as the game is complete and the on-chain mechanics have finalised the resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.