Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Natasha Howard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 99% |
| O/U 181.5 | 72% |
| Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces | 64% |
| O/U 182.5 | 64% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| O/U 183.5 | 56% |
| Natasha Howard: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Natasha Howard: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Napheesa Collier: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olivia Miles: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kayla McBride: Points O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Williams: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Napheesa Collier: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Olivia Miles: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kayla McBride: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Olivia Miles: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Napheesa Collier: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Howard: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kayla McBride: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Williams: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Howard: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kayla McBride: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Olivia Miles: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Olivia Miles: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
Market context
The Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction market currently prices this outcome at 99% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 15 at 8:00PM ET: If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vega…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $270K.
Methodology
This page reviews Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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