Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo | 56% |
| Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 165.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 166.5 | 20% |
| O/U 167.5 | 15% |
| O/U 168.5 | 14% |
| O/U 169.5 | 11% |
Market context
The Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo prediction market currently prices this outcome at 56% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 8 at 7:00PM ET: If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the Toronto Tempo win, the market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $397K.
Methodology
We track Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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