Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods, the professional golfer, has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him a candidate for presidential clemency. The market prices this outcome at 2% on Polygon, reflecting the extremely low baseline probability that Trump would issue a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Woods by June 2026. For this contract to resolve YES, Woods would need to face federal charges, conviction, and sentencing within the next eighteen months—a scenario with no current indication in public reporting or legal proceedings.

Presidential pardons typically address individuals with existing federal convictions or those facing imminent prosecution. Historical precedent shows Trump issued 143 pardons and 36 commutations during his first term, predominantly targeting political allies, family associates, and individuals with high media visibility. Woods has maintained distance from federal legal jeopardy since a 2017 DUI arrest in Florida, which resulted in a plea to reckless driving under state law. No comparable case exists of a sitting president pardoning an athlete with no federal conviction solely for symbolic or commercial reasons.

The catalyst for any YES resolution would require either unexpected federal charges against Woods or a dramatic shift in Trump's clemency priorities between now and June 2026. Traders should monitor any federal indictments involving Woods, announcements from Trump regarding clemency lists, or statements from Woods' legal representatives. The 2% pricing reflects rational scepticism: absent a material change in Woods' legal status, this contract remains a tail-risk bet on an unprecedented executive action.

Methodology

We track Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.