Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 63% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 55% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Winner | 46% |
| Map 2 Winner | 46% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 42% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 30% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: global esports vs full sense (bo3) - vct pacific group alpha stands at 63% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Global Esports and FULL SENSE in the VCT Pacific Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 23 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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