Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 59% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 1 Winner | 48% |
| Map 2 Winner | 47% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 42% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 39% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 39% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 36% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 36% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 23% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: fnatic vs team heretics (bo3) - vct emea group omega stands at 62% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Fnatic and Team Heretics in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for August 2 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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