Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs 100 Thieves (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs 100 Thieves (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 23% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: 100 thieves vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup group a stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: 100 Thieves vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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