UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Cody Brundage is scheduled to face Andre Petroski at UFC Fight Night on the prelims, and Polymarket is pricing the conditional token at 100% YES, implying the market is effectively at the upper bound on the Brundage outcome. On Polygon, that means the USDC-settled contract is trading as if Brundage’s official win is already locked in, even though the market will only resolve from UFC’s declared result. If the bout is changed to a no contest, draw, or is otherwise not scored, the token would not settle to Brundage and would instead fall into the 50-50 outcome under the contract rules.

The most relevant frame is the first meeting between these two, which UFC Stats records as Brundage beating Petroski by majority decision at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa, with Brundage landing 43 of 60 significant strikes to Petroski’s 8 of 17. That history matters because it gives the matchup a recent, official baseline, but it does not remove fight-night execution risk in a middleweight pairing where grappling exchanges and top control can swing judging. BetMGM’s pre-fight write-up had Petroski as a sizeable favourite, underscoring that pre-fight markets and in-fight outcomes can diverge sharply in this division.

For traders, the key catalysts are the UFC’s official bout result, any late change to the card, and whether the contest reaches the judges. The settlement window is tight and closes at 2026-05-17T03:59:59.999Z, so the practical risk is less about long-run form and more about whether the prelim starts on schedule, finishes cleanly, and is formally recorded by the UFC. A late cancellation, doctor stoppage before a scorecard, or a post-fight ruling change would be more important to the contract than pre-fight opinion or betting market chatter.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.