UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this flyweight prelim priced at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively treating an Allan Nascimento win as a near-impossible outcome even though the bout is scheduled on the UFC card and can still resolve either way on the official result. On Polymarket, buyers are holding USDC against conditional tokens on Polygon, so the live price reflects how the market is weighing the official UFC settlement rather than the fight being “possible” in the abstract.

The historical frame is that Nascimento has generally been the more established grappling-oriented flyweight, while Mitch Raposo has tended to profile as the lower-volume, physical wrestler-boxer type; that sort of stylistic contrast often leaves markets sensitive to late changes in conditioning, weight, or camp continuity rather than name value alone. The matchup was previously moved off a UFC Winnipeg card because Raposo was ill, then rescheduled for this June date, which is a reminder that these contracts can swing sharply on operational news before the cage door closes.[3][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official weigh-ins, any last-minute injury or illness update, and confirmation that the bout stays on the prelims and makes the walk as scheduled.[1][4][7] If the fight is pushed back beyond the settlement deadline or does not happen on the UFC’s terms, the market can settle to the contract’s fallback outcome rather than a fighter win, so the practical risk is not just who wins but whether the bout is officially completed and recorded by the UFC.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.