BK Hacken vs. AIK - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

BK Hacken travel to AIK on 27 July 2026 for an Allsvenskan fixture, with settlement at 17:00 UTC. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 3% implied probability, reflecting the mathematical rarity of any single scoreline among dozens of plausible results. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, denominated in USDC, where YES resolves only if the final whistle produces one of the explicitly listed outcomes; any deviation settles to "Any Other Score," which captures the residual probability mass.

Historical Allsvenskan matches between these clubs show typical goal distributions clustering around 1–2 goals per side. A 1–1 draw or a 2–1 victory for either team accounts for a substantial share of their head-to-head results, yet even the most common scoreline rarely exceeds 15–20% probability in isolation. The 3% figure suggests traders are pricing this particular outcome—whichever one is listed—as materially less likely than the modal result, consistent with how Polymarket's order books typically distribute liquidity across exact-score markets in lower-tier European leagues.

Traders should monitor team news through late July; injuries to key forwards or defensive absences can shift expected goal output. Allsvenskan fixtures occasionally face weather-related postponements during summer, which would keep the market open beyond the initial settlement window. Recent fixture congestion in the Swedish league may also affect squad rotation decisions, particularly if either side has European qualification matches pending. Check official Allsvenskan announcements and club social media for lineup confirmations 24–48 hours before kick-off.

Methodology

We track BK Hacken vs. AIK - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.