Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 89% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 89% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 41.5 | 73% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 66% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 58% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| O/U 61.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 97% YES probability for Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.2M.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Patriots vs. Bills on Polymarket Scam?
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →