Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 94% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 94% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 91% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 90% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 90% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 89% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 89% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 88% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 87% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 87% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 86% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 86% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 83% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 81% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 80% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 80% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 78% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 78% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 78% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 77% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 75% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 73% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 72% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 72% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 71% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 71% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 70% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 68% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 65% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 64% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 61% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 60% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 59% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 59% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 58% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 58% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 58% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 57% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 56% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 56% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 55% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 55% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 55% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 55% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 54% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 54% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 53% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 52% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 41% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 28% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 23% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 20% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 18% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 16% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 11% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 4% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of falcons vs. packers - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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