Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 54% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 43% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 39% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 29% |
| O/U 52.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, cardinals vs. giants stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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