Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 94% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| O/U 227.5 | 83% |
| O/U 229.5 | 80% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| O/U 230.5 | 78% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 73% |
| O/U 233.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| O/U 235.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| O/U 236.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 64% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| O/U 238.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 62% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| O/U 239.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 59% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 242.5 | 54% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 54% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 53% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 249.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 35% |
| O/U 252.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 26% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Spread -12.5 | 17% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, wizards vs. bulls stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $226K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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