Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 83% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 78% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 74% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 72% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 63% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 55% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 36% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Market context
Market consensus: 84% chance of grizzlies vs. warriors. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "War…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $531K.
Methodology
This page reviews Grizzlies vs. Warriors across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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