Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
39% | 61% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
39% | 61% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Team to Score First | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Score | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Spread -11.5 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% YES | 45% NO |
Market context
The Detroit Pistons face the Cleveland Cavaliers on 15 May at 12:00 AM ET in what appears to be a playoff fixture given the late-season timing. Polymarket currently prices the Pistons victory at 39% implied probability, meaning the conditional YES tokens (which pay out if Detroit wins) trade at roughly $0.39 per contract on USDC across Polygon infrastructure. This 39-61 split favours Cleveland substantially, reflecting their stronger regular-season positioning and recent form heading into the postseason.
Historical matchup data between these franchises shows the Cavaliers have maintained a winning record over the past three seasons, though the Pistons have demonstrated capacity to compete in individual playoff contests. The 39% probability sits in the range typical for road teams facing stronger opposition in playoff scenarios, where home-court advantage and roster depth become material factors. Recent comparable playoff spreads on Polymarket have priced underdogs in similar circumstances between 35-45%, suggesting the current market reflects conventional playoff dynamics rather than outlier sentiment.
Traders should monitor roster availability announcements through 14 May, particularly regarding injury status for key contributors on either side. The Cavaliers' depth at guard and forward positions represents a structural advantage that would need to shift materially through injury news to alter the probability meaningfully. Settlement occurs immediately upon final score determination including any overtime, with USDC payouts distributed to winning token holders on Polygon within standard network confirmation windows. Postponement would extend the market open; cancellation without rescheduling would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pistons vs. Cavaliers on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →