FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Cincinnati will host Inter Miami CF in an MLS regular-season fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The market currently prices this contract at 0% on Polymarket, meaning traders are settling conditional tokens on Polygon at zero USDC value—effectively pricing zero probability that this specific matchup occurs as scheduled. This extreme pricing reflects either a technical issue with the market's setup or genuine uncertainty about whether the fixture will take place.

Historical MLS scheduling has been remarkably stable in recent seasons, with regular-season matches rarely cancelled outright. The 2020 season saw fixture disruptions due to COVID-19, but since 2021 the league has maintained near-complete scheduling integrity. A 0% probability for a fixture three weeks out is unusual unless there are known complications: venue unavailability, league restructuring, or conditional settlement criteria that traders believe cannot be met. Comparable Polymarket sports contracts typically reflect at least 5–15% residual uncertainty for matches scheduled within a month.

Traders should monitor official MLS communications regarding the 2026 schedule, any announcements from either club about facility issues, and the exact settlement criteria encoded in the contract itself. Recent MLS fixture cancellations have been rare, but weather events, labour disputes, or administrative changes could alter the fixture calendar. The settlement window closes 13 May at 23:30 UTC, leaving minimal time for rescheduling if disruptions emerge. Confirmation of the match's confirmed status and venue availability in early May will be critical data points for reassessing this contract's true probability.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.