Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 70% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 20% |
| Paul Skenes | 7% |
| Dylan Cease | 5% |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% |
| Garrett Crochet | 1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1% |
| Hunter Brown | 1% |
| Sonny Gray | 1% |
| Bryan Woo | 1% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1% |
| Reid Detmers | 1% |
| Nolan McLean | 1% |
| Max Fried | 1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 1% |
| Logan Webb | 0% |
| Freddy Peralta | 0% |
| Carlos Rodón | 0% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0% |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% |
| Joe Ryan | 0% |
| Taj Bradley | 0% |
| José Soriano | 0% |
| Logan Gilbert | 0% |
| Emerson Hancock | 0% |
| Hunter Greene | 0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% |
| Pitcher A | 0% |
| Pitcher B | 0% |
| Pitcher C | 0% |
| Pitcher D | 0% |
| Pitcher E | 0% |
| Pitcher F | 0% |
| Pitcher G | 0% |
| Pitcher H | 0% |
| Pitcher I | 0% |
| Pitcher J | 0% |
| Pitcher K | 0% |
| Pitcher L | 0% |
| Pitcher M | 0% |
| Pitcher N | 0% |
| Pitcher O | 0% |
| Pitcher P | 0% |
| Pitcher Q | 0% |
| Pitcher R | 0% |
| Pitcher S | 0% |
| Pitcher T | 0% |
| Pitcher U | 0% |
| Pitcher V | 0% |
| Pitcher W | 0% |
| Pitcher X | 0% |
| Pitcher Y | 0% |
| Pitcher Z | 0% |
| Pitcher AA | 0% |
| Pitcher AB | 0% |
| Pitcher AC | 0% |
| Pitcher AD | 0% |
| Pitcher AE | 0% |
| Pitcher AF | 0% |
| Pitcher AG | 0% |
| Pitcher AH | 0% |
| Pitcher AI | 0% |
| Pitcher AJ | 0% |
| Pitcher AK | 0% |
| Pitcher AL | 0% |
| Pitcher AM | 0% |
| Pitcher AN | 0% |
| Pitcher AO | 0% |
| Pitcher AP | 0% |
| Pitcher AQ | 0% |
| Pitcher AR | 0% |
| Pitcher AS | 0% |
| Pitcher AT | 0% |
| Pitcher AU | 0% |
| Pitcher AV | 0% |
| Pitcher AW | 0% |
| Pitcher AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher prediction market currently prices this outcome at 70% YES. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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