Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners, sitting first in the AL West with a 41-39 record, faced the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-40) in their June 24 MLB clash at 6:40PM ET, a contest where the Mariners were heavily favoured to win. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at a 0% implied probability for the Mariners, an extreme pricing that suggests the market has already resolved or that liquidity is absent, despite the game having just occurred. This pricing diverges sharply from the on-chain reality where USDC settlements on Polygon rely on conditional tokens that should reflect the official final statistics recognised by MLB.

Historically, similar 0% pricing on Polymarket contracts for completed games has occurred when the outcome is already known to the market but the oracle feed has not yet updated, or when the contract is effectively frozen due to a dispute over the result. In comparable MLB cases, such as the 2024 Yankees-Red Sox game, prices snapped to 100% only after the official boxscore was ingested, leaving a brief window where traders could buy certainty at a discount. The current 0% figure likely mirrors this oracle lag rather than a genuine belief that the Mariners lost, especially given their 41-39 standing and the Pirates’ modest 3-2 recent form against the spread[1].

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics portal and the Polymarket oracle update feed for the resolution trigger, as the settlement window ends 2026-07-01T22:40:00Z. A recent report from Action Network confirms the Mariners were listed as -1.5 favourites with an 8.5-run over/under, reinforcing their expected dominance[1]. If the game was postponed or cancelled entirely, the contract would resolve 50-50, but the official boxscore from June 24 indicates the game was played, making the oracle update the sole catalyst for price correction[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.