New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees–Mets game is priced on Polymarket at 38% YES, with USDC posted on Polygon and the contract settling to the final MLB result via the event’s official statistics. At that level, the market is leaning to the Mets side, but the gap is not wide enough to imply a one-sided read. For a hand-on user, the key point is that the contract is binary on the completed game: if there is a postponement it stays open until played, while a cancellation with no make-up, or a tie, would settle 50-50.

Recent comparable pricing tends to move sharply on the announced starting pitchers and any late lineup changes, especially in a crosstown game where public money can react quickly to team form rather than deeper run-prevention numbers. The current season record also matters: MLB scoreboard pages show the Yankees at 28-17 and the Mets at 18-26, which would normally support a Yankees lean, but the live market is clearly discounting that edge. Head-to-head results can be noisy in short samples; StatMuse lists the Yankees 4-6 in the last 10 meetings, so recent Subway Series form does not strongly favour one side.

For catalysts, watch the official line-up cards, starting pitcher confirmation, and any weather-related delay risk before first pitch at 7:15pm ET on 16 May. ESPN and MLB.com both highlighted the Yankees’ 5-2 win in the first game of the series, which may feed short-term momentum narratives, but the contract will still resolve only on the completed game. If the game is moved or split into a make-up spot, the settlement mechanics remain tied to the eventual official result rather than the original date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.