Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.8M
- 24h volume
- $1.8M
- Liquidity
- $6.6M
- Open interest
- $1.4M
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (20)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Yankees travel to Baltimore on 13 May for an AL East matchup against the Orioles, with the conditional token market currently pricing a Yankees victory at 2% on Polygon. This implies roughly 98% implied probability for an Orioles win, a substantial favourite position that reflects either significant underlying confidence in Baltimore's form or a skewed market structure where YES liquidity remains thin.
Historical context matters here: the Yankees hold a 119–97 all-time record against the Orioles, though recent seasons have seen more competitive matchups. The 2% pricing is extreme by standard sports betting benchmarks—typical sportsbooks would offer Yankees moneyline odds closer to -150 to -200 (roughly 60% implied), suggesting the Polymarket contract may reflect either illiquidity on the YES side or sharp positioning by early traders. Comparable MLB games with similar pre-game expectations have occasionally seen 5–10% YES probabilities for the underdog, making 2% notably compressed.
Traders should monitor pitching assignments and injury reports through to game time, as starting pitcher quality typically drives 3–5 percentage point swings in baseball markets. Recent Baltimore form, current Yankees roster status, and any late-breaking roster moves announced via MLB official channels will inform whether the current pricing holds. The settlement window extends to 20 May 2026, providing buffer for postponements, though the USDC-backed conditional token structure on Polygon means resolution depends on official MLB final statistics being confirmed and bridged to the contract oracle.
Wikipedia Context
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New York CityNew York, often called New York City (NYC), is the most populous city in the United States. It is located at the southern tip of New York State on New York Harbor, one of the world's largest natural harbors. The city comprises five boroughs, each coextensive with its respective county. It is the geographical and demographic center of both the Northeast megal
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The New York TimesThe New York Times (NYT) is a newspaper based in Manhattan, New York City. The New York Times covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces and reviews. One of the longest-running newspapers in the United States, the Times serves as one of the country's newspapers of record. As of August 2025, The New York Times had 11.88 mi
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New York (state)New York, also called New York State, is a state located in the northeastern United States. Bordering New England to its east, Canada to its north, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey to its south, it extends into both the Atlantic Ocean and the Great Lakes. New York is the fourth-most populous state in the United States, with over 20 million residents, and the
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New York KnicksThe New York Knickerbockers, shortened and more commonly referred to as the New York Knicks, are an American professional basketball team based in the New York City borough of Manhattan. The Knicks compete in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a member of the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference. The team plays its home games at Madison Squa
Methodology
This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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