Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to Pittsburgh on 13 June for a regular-season matchup against the Pirates, with the Polymarket contract currently pricing a Marlins victory at 45% implied probability. This reflects a slight lean towards the Pirates, though the spread remains competitive enough that either outcome commands meaningful backing on the USDC-settled conditional token pair on Polygon.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Pirates have held a modest edge in recent seasons, though 2024 performance diverges sharply from longer-term trends. The Marlins finished 2023 with a 62–100 record, whilst Pittsburgh posted 76–86, yet both clubs remain in rebuild phases with volatile roster compositions. Comparable June fixtures between struggling franchises typically settle near 50–50 odds unless one team has demonstrably superior pitching depth or recent momentum. The 45% Marlins probability suggests traders are factoring Pittsburgh's slight structural advantage rather than expecting a blowout.

Pitching assignments and injury reports will drive repricing in the days before first pitch. Starter availability—particularly whether Miami deploys a full-strength rotation or relies on depth arms—carries outsized weight given both teams' thin margins. Recent transactions, roster moves, or weather delays affecting the scheduled 4:05 PM ET start could shift the conditional token distribution. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponements without market closure, though any cancellation without a make-up fixture would trigger a 50–50 resolution regardless of current pricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.