Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins contract at 1% YES, so a USDC-backed buy today on Polygon is effectively a wager that Houston will win at Target Field on 20 May and settle the conditional token to the Astros side. With such a low price, the market is signalling that the crowd sees a Minnesota win as the near-default outcome, rather than a balanced coin flip.

That kind of 1% reading is usually more about positioning than certainty. In MLB, even strong teams can be heavily shaded against if they are on the road, have a weaker starting-pitching spot, or are coming off a poor run of form. Recent preview pieces have already pointed to Minnesota being a small favourite in similar Astros-Twins match-ups, with one October 2023 preview listing the Twins at -125 and another June 2025 FOX Sports preview putting the Astros only marginally ahead at -119 in Houston, which underlines how sensitive this pairing can be to venue and pitcher context.

For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late pitching change, and whether the game starts on time, because postponement keeps the market open until completion. The market description also matters: if the game is cancelled outright, or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either club. At the settlement window end, the final official MLB score will decide the conditional token payout, so any scratch, suspension, or make-up scheduling news is directly relevant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.