Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros** contract at **95% YES**, which is far above the pre-game betting market, where Houston was a modest favourite at around **-124 to -125** and Cleveland was available at roughly **+105 to +106**. On a Polymarket-user basis, that means the contract is trading as if a Cleveland win is extremely likely, but the on-chain settlement still depends on the official final result being recognised for the scheduled MLB game, with funds locked in **USDC on Polygon** through the market’s conditional-token structure.

That kind of gap between crowd price and sportsbook moneyline is not unusual in fast-moving baseball markets, especially when the game has already started or when the contract reflects information that conventional odds have not fully absorbed. Comparable cases often show Polymarket probabilities staying elevated when users expect late line movement, pitching confirmation, or lineup news to break in one direction, even if the underlying pre-match moneyline remains closer to a coin flip than a 95% outcome. In practice, a near-certain YES price can still move sharply if the market is resolving on live score information, or if traders reassess whether the listed game status actually matches the eventual official result.

For traders, the main catalysts are the official MLB final, any postponement or suspension handling, and whether the game is completed within the settlement window ending **2026-06-27T00:10:00Z**. Sports outlets listed Houston as the slight favourite before first pitch, with a probable pitching matchup of **Tanner Bibee vs Tatsuya Imai** and an 8.5 total, so any verified change to the starter list, delay, or make-up scheduling can matter more than the pre-game headline price. If the contest is cancelled with no make-up, or ends in a tie, the market resolves **50-50** under the contract rules, so the exact MLB status notice is the key operational dependency rather than the scoreline alone.

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Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.