Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices Baltimore to win at **39% YES**, which means the market is assigning the Dodgers roughly 61% implied win probability on the conditional-token contract settled in **USDC on Polygon**. For a user holding positions on-chain, the key point is that the contract resolves only on the official final result of the game, so a completed Dodgers win pays the opposite side, while a postponement keeps the market open until the rescheduled game is finished.

That 39% sits below the wider betting market, where the Dodgers were listed around **-195** on the moneyline and Baltimore around **+160** before first pitch, a gap that reflects both home advantage and the market’s view of Los Angeles as the stronger side. Comparable MLB moneylines near this range usually imply a favourite in the low-to-mid 60s percent, so Polymarket’s price is broadly in line with that framing rather than signalling an extreme upset view. In a single-game market, small changes in lineup strength or starting pitching can move the probability quickly, especially when the contract is already near the one-third-to-two-thirds zone.

The main catalysts for traders are late lineup news, starting pitcher confirmation, and any schedule change that affects whether the game is completed inside the settlement window. ESPN’s game page notes the June 19 meeting at Dodger Stadium as the first of a three-game series and flags **Justin Verlander** as having suffered a left hamstring injury, which is the kind of rotation news that can matter if it changes who is available or who is expected to start subsequent games.[5] Because Polymarket uses conditional tokens, any postponement, cancellation, or tied completion is not just a baseball outcome but a settlement issue: a no-result can leave the market open, while a cancelled or tied game resolves 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.